Four data points from Luminate’s ‘Hollywood Exodus 2026’ — locations, budgets, tax credit — reveal a structural reshaping of the U.S. TV industry-
The Los Angeles production ecosystem, long regarded as the beating heart of the global film industry, is showing visible structural cracks.
According to content market research firm Luminate, the number of U.S. scripted live-action TV series filmed in Los Angeles, California fell from 42 in Q1 2019 to 15 in Q1 2026 — a 64% drop over seven years. Over the same period, the $1M–$3M-per-episode tier shrank from 52% of U.S. TV premieres to 34%, while the broader sub-$5M tier fell from 82% to 63%.
The crux is that this mid- and lower-budget tier had been the ‘staple’ of L.A.’s production ecosystem. Relatively long seasons, limited reliance on foreign locations, and rotational production cycling through the same city’s soundstages had together sustained the year-round bookings of studios, crews, and service vendors.
Read together, the four data points presented in Luminate’s ‘Hollywood Exodus 2026’ report point to something more than a simple shoot-location drift: a structural shift in which the collapse of L.A.’s mid-budget base and the concentration of spending into franchise-scale productions are operating in tandem.
Because that mid-budget band was the core asset of L.A.’s content ecosystem, the city’s losses run significantly above the U.S. average during this period of simultaneous content contraction and budget polarization. How far California’s expanded film and TV tax credit, enacted last year, can reverse the trend is the open question shaping industry debate ahead.
1. Locations — L.A. 42 to 15, While New York Climbs from 5 to 11
Luminate’s quarterly tracking shows L.A. logging the steepest decline among the six leading U.S. production hubs. In Q1 2019, L.A. accounted for 42 of 73 top-six titles — 57.5%. By Q1 2026, the city held 15 of 50, or 30%. The headline ‘40% to under 25%’ figure cited in the report is calculated against the broader universe of scripted releases including animation; restrict the view to live-action only and L.A.’s share drop is larger still.
The pattern across other hubs is uneven. New York more than doubled, from 5 to 11 titles. Atlanta held roughly flat (8 to 9). Vancouver collapsed from 10 to 4, hit decisively by The CW’s drastic scaling-back of its original scripted slate — the network had long been the city’s anchor client. The UK and Ireland rose from 3 to 6, while Toronto held at 5.
Taken together, the data does not support a simple narrative of “work redistributed evenly to other cities or overseas.” Some of L.A.’s lost titles did move to New York, the UK, and elsewhere, but a substantial share reflects projects that were halted at the development stage and never made at all — a sign that title counts and employment are contracting in parallel.
[Figure 1] U.S. scripted live-action TV series shoot locations, quarterly (Source: Luminate Film & TV)
2. Budget Polarization — Sub-$5M Titles Down from 82% to 63%
Episodic budget distribution shifted even more dramatically over the same period. In 2019, 52% of U.S. TV premieres fell in the $1M–$3M tier, 30% in the $3M–$5M tier, and 12% in the $5M–$10M tier. The three higher tiers ($10M–$15M, $15M–$20M, $20M+) combined to a single-digit slice.
By 2025, the $1M–$3M tier had shrunk to 34%, $3M–$5M held roughly steady at 29%, while $5M–$10M more than doubled to 27%. The sub-$1M tier shrank to the point of near-invisibility on the chart. The aggregate sub-$5M share fell from approximately 82% in 2019 to about 63% in 2025.
The issue is not simple inflation. The mid- and lower-budget bands have been hollowed out, pushing the portfolio toward both extremes. As $20M-plus franchise and genre productions have multiplied, the experimental and general-purpose dramas that once tested a range of genres and formats in the middle have receded, deepening industry dependence on a handful of megabudgets layered over a base of short-run, one-off projects.
The pattern echoes the 2010s feature-film market, where tentpoles squeezed out mid- and lower-budget films — and as it repeats in TV, the industry’s capacity to spread risk has actually weakened, in Luminate’s reading.
[Figure 2] U.S. TV premieres by episodic budget level, 2019 vs. 2025 (Source: Lumi
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고삼석 상임의장 · Chairman Samseog Ko
고삼석(Ko Samseog)은 K-EnterTech Forum 상임의장입니다. 동국대학교 첨단융합대학 석좌교수이자 국가인공지능전략위원회 분과위원으로, 30년 이상의 방송통신 정책 및 산업 경험을 바탕으로 K-콘텐츠와 글로벌 엔터테인먼트 기술의 융합을 선도하고 있습니다. 前 방송통신위원회 상임위원을 역임했으며, ZDNet Korea에 정기 칼럼을 연재 중입니다.
Samseog Ko is the founding Chairman (상임의장) of K-EnterTech Forum. He is a Distinguished Professor at Dongguk University and a member of Korea's National AI Strategy Committee. Former Commissioner of the Korea Communications Commission (KCC).
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